?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:0
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Roar Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 45 games
53%
Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 44 games
64%
Pudge
Pudge
yamich · 32 games
59%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 30 games
73%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
MidOne · 28 games
68%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Seleri · 23 games
70%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 23 games
74%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Crystallis · 23 games
65%

Roar Gaming

Snapfire
Snapfire
CatYou · 17 games
53%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
RedPanda · 13 games
62%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Ulu · 10 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
RedPanda · 9 games
56%
Jakiro
Jakiro
RedPanda · 9 games
33%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
ButterflyEffect · 9 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
生死 · 9 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
生死 · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
742 picks · 351 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
607 picks · 632 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
540 picks · 289 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
434 picks · 1180 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
432 picks · 259 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
431 picks · 472 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
426 picks · 708 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
383 picks · 244 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 55%
Hero pool strength57% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:9
MOUZ 74%Roar Gaming 26%
The model gave 74% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 27:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightGhost
48% · 513 games53% · 250 games
DoomJT-
Doom
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerBOOM
55% · 317 games48% · 378 games
Storm SpiritButterflyEffect
Storm Spirit
Leshrac
LeshracMidOne
48% · 176 games51% · 361 game
GyrocopterUlu
Gyrocopter
Clockwerk
Clockwerkyamich
48% · 355 games50% · 419 games
TuskCatYou
Tusk
Warlock
WarlockKaori
50% · 349 games51% · 302 games
PhoenixRedPanda
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct23:7
MOUZ 74%Roar Gaming 26%
The model gave 74% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 26:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinGhost
52% · 165 games55% · 174 games
TimbersawJT-
Timbersaw
Huskar
HuskarMidOne
58% · 50 games56% · 209 games
MorphlingUlu
Morphling
Mars
MarsBOOM
47% · 239 games46% · 259 games
Queen of PainButterflyEffect
Queen of Pain
Warlock
WarlockKaori
51% · 215 games48% · 322 games
SnapfireRedPanda
Snapfire
Tusk
Tuskyamich
46% · 334 games41% · 39 games
Spirit BreakerCatYou
Spirit Breaker
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 88%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2