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European Pro League Season 22 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:1
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Türkiyeloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Force · 26 games
31%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
bengan · 24 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Supream^ · 23 games
48%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 23 games
43%
Jakiro
Jakiro
bengan · 21 game
43%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
NARMAN · 20 games
45%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Force · 20 games
45%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
bengan · 20 games
35%

Team Türkiye

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Jeezy · 6 games
67%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Jeezy · 6 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Stoic · 5 games
80%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Stoic · 5 games
40%
Lich
Lich
Stoic · 5 games
60%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
G.T.I · 5 games
80%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
G.T.I · 4 games
50%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Stoic · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
486 picks · 603 bans
49%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
458 picks · 532 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
390 picks · 576 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
376 picks · 190 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
368 picks · 406 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
361 picks · 268 bans
50%
Invoker
Invoker
336 picks · 919 bans
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
334 picks · 701 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 56%
Hero pool strength57% Team Türkiye
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:41
MOUZ 65%Team Türkiye 35%
The model gave 65% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Team Türkiye in 35:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterUlnit
44% · 232 games54% · 207 games
InvokerG.T.I
Invoker
Lycan
LycanMikSa`
45% · 41 game50% · 383 games
RubickJeezy
Rubick
Tiny
TinySupream^
51% · 318 games52% · 309 games
ClockwerkStoic
Clockwerk
Lich
LichFly
53% · 44 games
Batrider
BatriderThiolicor
49% · 264 games
Game 2prediction correct36:20
MOUZ 64%Team Türkiye 36%
The model gave 64% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 33:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingUlnit
58% · 160 games52% · 360 games
TinyG.T.I
Tiny
Sand King
Sand KingSupream^
52% · 80 games40% · 284 games
SnapfireJeezy
Snapfire
Magnus
MagnusMikSa`
57% · 105 games53% · 65 games
LichStoic
Lich
Dark Willow
Dark WillowThiolicor
50% · 126 games
Phoenix
PhoenixFly
43% · 238 games
Game 3prediction correct38:20
MOUZ 64%Team Türkiye 36%
The model gave 64% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 33:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSupream^
40% · 94 games54% · 49 games
EarthshakerG.T.I
Earthshaker
Spectre
SpectreUlnit
65% · 8 games45% · 218 games
PhoenixJeezy
Phoenix
Magnus
MagnusMikSa`
53% · 70 games50% · 57 games
LichStoic
Lich
Muerta
MuertaThiolicor
52% · 83 games
Pugna
PugnaFly
54% · 69 games
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 78%
Series resultMOUZ 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3