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BLAST Slam V · BO1
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 0:1
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Team Tideboundwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 52 games
71%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 45 games
53%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
yamich · 39 games
62%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 32 games
75%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
MidOne · 31 game
68%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 30 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
BOOM · 30 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 29 games
72%

Team Tidebound

Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
y` · 25 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Faith_bian · 15 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Echo · 13 games
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
shiro · 13 games
54%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
NothingToSay · 13 games
31%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Echo · 13 games
54%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
shiro · 13 games
54%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
shiro · 12 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
777 picks · 354 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
582 picks · 590 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
566 picks · 299 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
471 picks · 543 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
471 picks · 287 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
466 picks · 273 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
454 picks · 739 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
434 picks · 1119 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 60%
Hero pool strength59% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:38
MOUZ 69%Team Tidebound 31%
The model gave 69% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 37:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightCrystallis
50% · 352 games49% · 334 games
Gyrocoptershiro
Gyrocopter
Leshrac
LeshracMidOne
46% · 155 games52% · 260 games
Timbersawniu
Timbersaw
Tidehunter
TidehunterBOOM
49% · 119 games58% · 85 games
Keeper of the LightEcho
Keeper of the Light
Pugna
PugnaSeleri
52% · 214 games46% · 358 games
SnapfirepLAnet
Snapfire
Tusk
Tuskyamich
43% · 349 games55% · 152 games
Naga Sireny`
Naga Siren
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 82%
Series resultTeam Tidebound 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1