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BLAST Slam V. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:0
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Yandexloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusk
yamich · 25 games
56%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MidOne · 24 games
58%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 20 games
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 16 games
69%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
yamich · 16 games
63%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 15 games
80%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
BOOM · 14 games
71%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 14 games
93%

Team Yandex

Warlock
Warlock
Solo · 12 games
33%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 10 games
40%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
TA2000 · 9 games
56%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
prblms · 8 games
25%
Doom
Doomsignature
TA2000 · 8 games
63%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Noticed · 7 games
86%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
prblms · 7 games
43%
Bane
Bane
prblms · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
512 picks · 265 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
481 picks · 482 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
363 picks · 989 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
327 picks · 375 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
300 picks · 512 bans
54%
Warlock
Warlock
300 picks · 145 bans
53%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
299 picks · 493 bans
57%
Tusk
Tusk
294 picks · 224 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 39%
Hero pool strength59% MOUZ
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total67% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:18
MOUZ 61%Team Yandex 39%
The model gave 61% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 35:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautCrystallis
52% · 19 games53% · 200 games
Nature's ProphetWatson
Nature's Prophet
Pangolier
PangolierBOOM
41% · 278 games52% · 189 games
EarthshakerChira JUNIOR
Earthshaker
Monkey King
Monkey KingMidOne
56% · 218 games47% · 79 games
SlardarNoticed
Slardar
Snapfire
SnapfireSeleri
52% · 265 games48% · 123 games
BaneMalady
Bane
Pudge
Pudgeyamich
55% · 45 games48% · 234 games
Hoodwinkprblms
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct28:22
MOUZ 62%Team Yandex 38%
The model gave 62% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 40:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautCrystallis
51% · 25 games45% · 83 games
WeaverWatson
Weaver
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMidOne
55% · 215 games43% · 106 games
LycanNoticed
Lycan
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBOOM
50% · 367 games49% · 346 games
PangolierChira JUNIOR
Pangolier
Tusk
Tuskyamich
57% · 309 games50% · 199 games
Snapfireprblms
Snapfire
Dazzle
DazzleSeleri
50% · 74 games46% · 256 games
JakiroMalady
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 67%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2