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PGL Wallachia Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:1
series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 58 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Crystallis · 45 games
67%
Warlock
Warlock
Seleri · 37 games
46%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
BOOM · 34 games
53%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
MidOne · 30 games
57%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Seleri · 29 games
72%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Seleri · 28 games
46%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Crystallis · 28 games
54%

Tundra Esports

Batrider
Batridersignature
Ari · 41 game
63%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Ari · 32 games
72%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Whitemon · 31 game
65%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
bzm · 28 games
61%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 28 games
71%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Whitemon · 27 games
78%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
33 · 27 games
59%
Tiny
Tinysignature
bzm · 27 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
615 picks · 572 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
516 picks · 410 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
466 picks · 406 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
452 picks · 513 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
448 picks · 218 bans
57%
Warlock
Warlock
401 picks · 250 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
389 picks · 1033 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
386 picks · 894 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 60%
Hero pool strength55% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 7
Model total79% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:7
MOUZ 35%Tundra Esports 65%
The model gave 65% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by MOUZ in 38:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawBOOM
50% · 303 games46% · 146 games
Underlord33
Underlord
Lone Druid
Lone DruidCrystallis
61% · 20 games43% · 364 games
TinyV-Tune
Tiny
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLorenof
53% · 639 games46% · 317 games
Storm Spiritbzm
Storm Spirit
Venomancer
Venomanceraik
57% · 77 games48% · 332 games
TuskAri
Tusk
Clockwerk
Clockwerkyamich
49% · 197 games57% · 77 games
SilencerWhitemon
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct24:33
MOUZ 34%Tundra Esports 66%
The model gave 66% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 45:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLorenof
51% · 178 games47% · 285 games
Timbersaw33
Timbersaw
Tidehunter
TidehunterBOOM
43% · 111 games61% · 22 games
Lone DruidV-Tune
Lone Druid
Alchemist
AlchemistCrystallis
56% · 47 games54% · 276 games
Sand Kingbzm
Sand King
Tusk
Tuskyamich
48% · 238 games49% · 78 games
GrimstrokeWhitemon
Grimstroke
Jakiro
Jakiroaik
46% · 278 games55% · 191 game
RubickAri
Rubick
Game 3prediction missed33:13
MOUZ 33%Tundra Esports 67%
The model gave 67% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by MOUZ in 40:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaCrystallis
52% · 138 games54% · 79 games
LifestealerV-Tune
Lifestealer
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLorenof
55% · 254 games54% · 186 games
Doom33
Doom
Pangolier
PangolierBOOM
43% · 239 games50% · 168 games
Void Spiritbzm
Void Spirit
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeyamich
46% · 45 games56% · 112 games
RubickAri
Rubick
Techies
Techiesaik
39% · 39 games47% · 170 games
PhoenixWhitemon
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 79%
Series resultMOUZ 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3