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BLAST Slam IV · BO1
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 1:0
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Yakult Brothersloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 34 games
65%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 32 games
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
MidOne · 29 games
66%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
yamich · 26 games
62%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 25 games
76%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
BOOM · 19 games
68%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Crystallis · 18 games
61%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 18 games
67%

Yakult Brothers

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 33 games
58%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Poloson · 20 games
75%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Emo · 20 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
flyfly · 18 games
50%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Oli · 18 games
61%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
zeal · 17 games
65%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
flyfly · 15 games
40%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
flyfly · 14 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
625 picks · 309 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
540 picks · 548 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
399 picks · 1119 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
381 picks · 201 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
359 picks · 614 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
353 picks · 392 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
350 picks · 160 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
346 picks · 269 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 47%
Hero pool strength56% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:21
MOUZ 67%Yakult Brothers 33%
The model gave 67% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 46:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonCrystallis
52% · 254 games53% · 343 games
PuckEmo
Puck
Leshrac
LeshracMidOne
53% · 137 games36% · 95 games
Troll Warlordflyfly
Troll Warlord
Mars
MarsBOOM
57% · 227 games49% · 171 game
Undyingzeal
Undying
Enchantress
EnchantressSeleri
50% · 218 games51% · 373 games
BatriderBoBoKa
Batrider
Tusk
Tuskyamich
48% · 415 games51% · 269 games
ClockwerkPoloson
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 75%
Series resultMOUZ 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1