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BLAST Slam V · BO1
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 1:0
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Yakult Brothersloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 55 games
71%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 45 games
53%
Pudge
Pudge
yamich · 41 game
59%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
MidOne · 33 games
67%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 32 games
75%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 32 games
72%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 31 game
65%
Mars
Marssignature
BOOM · 30 games
67%

Yakult Brothers

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 31 game
48%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Emo · 22 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Poloson · 20 games
70%
Bane
Bane
Oli · 18 games
44%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
flyfly · 16 games
44%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Poloson · 16 games
31%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Emo · 16 games
31%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
BoBoKa · 14 games
21%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
782 picks · 357 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
585 picks · 584 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
573 picks · 301 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
484 picks · 308 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
478 picks · 562 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
471 picks · 268 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
461 picks · 752 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
437 picks · 1114 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 40%
Hero pool strength61% MOUZ
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total88% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:11
MOUZ 77%Yakult Brothers 23%
The model gave 77% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 33:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordCrystallis
43% · 92 games46% · 355 games
Gyrocopterflyfly
Gyrocopter
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMidOne
53% · 366 games42% · 235 games
Queen of PainEmo
Queen of Pain
Tidehunter
TidehunterBOOM
54% · 165 games51% · 252 games
Centaur Warrunnerzeal
Centaur Warrunner
Chen
ChenSeleri
60% · 204 games48% · 45 games
Venomancer天命
Venomancer
Tusk
Tuskyamich
49% · 375 games52% · 315 games
BatriderBoBoKa
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 88%
Series resultMOUZ 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1