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CCT Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:0
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
bengan · 30 games
57%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
Force · 26 games
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 26 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Force · 25 games
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
NARMAN · 23 games
61%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Force · 23 games
30%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
NARMAN · 23 games
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Supream^ · 22 games
45%

Zero Tenacity

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
DaaD- · 6 games
67%
Batrider
Batrider
Thiolicor · 4 games
50%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
MikSa` · 4 games
75%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
LeBronDota · 4 games
25%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 3 games
67%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
MikSa` · 3 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 3 games
67%
Lion
Lion
Thiolicor · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
459 picks · 619 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
391 picks · 434 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
337 picks · 480 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
334 picks · 418 bans
55%
Enchantress
Enchantress
315 picks · 607 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
309 picks · 166 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
290 picks · 356 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
274 picks · 270 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 63%
Hero pool strength54% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total61% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:6
MOUZ 53%Zero Tenacity 47%
The model gave 53% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 22:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterUlnit
45% · 295 games53% · 257 games
Dragon KnightDaaD-
Dragon Knight
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritSupream^
42% · 135 games56% · 198 games
Primal BeastMikSa`
Primal Beast
Beastmaster
BeastmasterForce
49% · 190 games56% · 192 games
Storm SpiritStojkov
Storm Spirit
Lich
LichTobi
44% · 36 games51% · 117 games
ChenLeBronDota
Chen
Tusk
TuskImmersion
43% · 282 games61% · 174 games
LionThiolicor
Lion
Game 2prediction correct34:8
MOUZ 53%Zero Tenacity 47%
The model gave 53% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 22:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackUlnit
49% · 95 games47% · 266 games
LunaDaaD-
Luna
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritSupream^
49% · 137 games51% · 144 games
InvokerStojkov
Invoker
Enigma
EnigmaForce
49% · 114 games46% · 83 games
DawnbreakerMikSa`
Dawnbreaker
Dark Willow
Dark WillowImmersion
46% · 208 games59% · 247 games
Shadow DemonThiolicor
Shadow Demon
Enchantress
EnchantressTobi
52% · 242 games52% · 56 games
Ogre MagiLeBronDota
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 61%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2