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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Myth Avenue Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
IHC Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Myth Avenue Gaming

Tusk
Tusksignature
Hishge · 20 games
70%
Rubick
Rubick
RR · 16 games
50%
Mirana
Miranasignature
RR · 12 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
xsilearn · 10 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
xsilearn · 10 games
70%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Meracle · 10 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
xsilearn · 10 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
zeal · 9 games
56%

IHC Esports

Mirana
Miranasignature
Se · 9 games
78%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
423 · 8 games
88%
Rubick
Rubick
ace12 · 8 games
50%
Tusk
Tusksignature
ace12 · 8 games
63%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
ace12 · 7 games
29%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Se · 5 games
40%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
423 · 4 games
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 4 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
737 picks · 566 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
606 picks · 524 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
559 picks · 1282 bans
57%
Doom
Doom
556 picks · 1094 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
505 picks · 566 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
471 picks · 951 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
463 picks · 1113 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
458 picks · 650 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 58%
Hero pool strength55% Myth Avenue Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total54% Myth Avenue Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:22
Myth Avenue Gaming 52%IHC Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on Myth Avenue Gaming — the game was taken by Myth Avenue Gaming in 51:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenMeracle
55% · 160 games51% · 206 games
Morphling423
Morphling
Pangolier
Pangolierxsilearn
50% · 410 games53% · 100 games
Queen of PainSancity
Queen of Pain
Timbersaw
Timbersawzeal
56% · 242 games52% · 98 games
Underlordeleven
Underlord
Techies
TechiesPoloson
49% · 268 games43% · 464 games
Rubickace12
Rubick
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionRR
49% · 44 games41% · 256 games
EnchantressSe
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct24:10
Myth Avenue Gaming 52%IHC Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on Myth Avenue Gaming — the game was taken by Myth Avenue Gaming in 30:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingMeracle
49% · 264 games52% · 113 games
Alchemist423
Alchemist
Magnus
Magnuszeal
46% · 190 games55% · 307 games
Beastmastereleven
Beastmaster
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritxsilearn
48% · 300 games52% · 163 games
PuckSancity
Puck
Techies
TechiesPoloson
52% · 310 games45% · 409 games
Rubickace12
Rubick
Pugna
PugnaRR
48% · 175 games51% · 247 games
EnchantressSe
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteMyth Avenue Gaming · 54%
Series resultMyth Avenue Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2