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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Myth Avenue Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Neon Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Myth Avenue Gaming

Tusk
Tusksignature
Hishge · 22 games
73%
Rubick
Rubick
RR · 16 games
56%
Mirana
Miranasignature
RR · 15 games
73%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
zeal · 12 games
67%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Meracle · 11 games
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 10 games
60%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
xsilearn · 10 games
70%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Meracle · 9 games
56%

Neon Esports

Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Hated · 8 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 6 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Enryu · 5 games
60%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
FortuneSoul · 5 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Hated · 5 games
40%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
FortuneSoul · 4 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
FortuneSoul · 4 games
75%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
FortuneSoul · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
724 picks · 620 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
599 picks · 527 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
511 picks · 987 bans
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
508 picks · 1261 bans
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
448 picks · 1128 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
441 picks · 908 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
421 picks · 222 bans
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
417 picks · 605 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 63%
Hero pool strength57% Myth Avenue Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total57% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:37
Myth Avenue Gaming 47%Neon Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 28:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinKarma丶
53% · 84 games54% · 67 games
MedusaFortuneSoul
Medusa
Batrider
Batriderxsilearn
50% · 123 games46% · 117 games
Storm SpiritKen
Storm Spirit
Mars
Marszeal
51% · 60 games46% · 167 games
EnchantressHishge
Enchantress
Dark Willow
Dark WillowPoloson
60% · 46 games
Clinkz
ClinkzMeracle
43% · 38 games
Game 2prediction missed28:16
Myth Avenue Gaming 44%Neon Esports 56%
The model gave 56% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Myth Avenue Gaming in 28:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeKarma丶
52% · 68 games39% · 43 games
MuertaFortuneSoul
Muerta
Pangolier
Pangolierxsilearn
56% · 115 games52% · 232 games
Void SpiritKen
Void Spirit
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakerzeal
36% · 38 games53% · 71 game
Dark WillowHishge
Dark Willow
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightPoloson
58% · 68 games
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenMeracle
47% · 57 games
Game 3prediction missed26:18
Myth Avenue Gaming 46%Neon Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Myth Avenue Gaming in 37:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeKarma丶
56% · 188 games51% · 220 games
Faceless VoidFortuneSoul
Faceless Void
Enigma
Enigmazeal
57% · 178 games44% · 240 games
Void SpiritKen
Void Spirit
Pangolier
Pangolierxsilearn
54% · 298 games43% · 570 games
RubickHishge
Rubick
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightPoloson
53% · 167 games
Batrider
BatriderMeracle
51% · 199 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 57%
Series resultMyth Avenue Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3