?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
Myth Avenue Gamingloss 0:1
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Neon Esportswin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Myth Avenue Gaming

Rubick
Rubick
RR · 16 games
44%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Hishge · 15 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
xsilearn · 12 games
58%
Mirana
Miranasignature
RR · 11 games
73%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
xsilearn · 10 games
50%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
zeal · 9 games
56%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Meracle · 9 games
56%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
xsilearn · 8 games
63%

Neon Esports

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Ken · 12 games
67%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Ken · 8 games
63%
Rubick
Rubick
Hishge · 7 games
57%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
FortuneSoul · 6 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 6 games
50%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
FortuneSoul · 5 games
40%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
FortuneSoul · 5 games
80%
Silencer
Silencer
Hated · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
690 picks · 477 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
611 picks · 643 bans
55%
Doom
Doom
568 picks · 1112 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
521 picks · 493 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
516 picks · 1235 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
483 picks · 1050 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
459 picks · 681 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
452 picks · 922 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 63%
Hero pool strength51% Neon Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total62% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:46
Myth Avenue Gaming 44%Neon Esports 56%
The model gave 56% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 35:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenKarma丶
58% · 150 games47% · 260 games
MorphlingFortuneSoul
Morphling
Leshrac
Leshracxsilearn
58% · 199 games52% · 321 game
Primal BeastKen
Primal Beast
Timbersaw
Timbersawzeal
51% · 195 games40% · 687 games
RubickHishge
Rubick
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPoloson
50% · 354 games
Disruptor
DisruptorMeracle
52% · 370 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 62%
Series resultNeon Esports 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1