Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Myth Avenue Gamingloss 0:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
SPAWN Teamwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Myth Avenue Gaming
Tusksignature
Hishge · 10 games
Linasignature
xsilearn · 7 games
Mirana
RR · 5 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Meracle · 5 games
Rubick
RR · 5 games
Tiny
Hishge · 5 games
Beastmasteroften banned
zeal · 4 games
Doomoften banned
Meracle · 4 games
SPAWN Team
Tuskoften banned
dalul · 12 games
Mirana
TraVins · 11 games
Silenceroften banned
TraVins · 11 games
Disruptor
TraVins · 9 games
Morphlingoften banned
Jikroy · 9 games
Tinysignature
dalul · 8 games
Rubick
dalul · 7 games
Naga Sirensignature
Jikroy · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
439 picks · 445 bans
Rubick
438 picks · 289 bans
Tiny
429 picks · 397 bans
Mirana
321 picks · 320 bans
Treant Protector
286 picks · 342 bans
Snapfire
263 picks · 135 bans
Ember Spirit
239 picks · 610 bans
Crystal Maiden
232 picks · 160 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 60%
Hero pool strength57% Myth Avenue Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total54% SPAWN Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:30
Myth Avenue Gaming 50%SPAWN Team 50%
The model gave 50% on SPAWN Team — the game was taken by SPAWN Team in 45:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmasterzeal
MorphlingJikroy
Windrangerxsilearn
PangolierMamangDaya
Night StalkerMeracle
MarciRed
RubickHishge
Tuskdalul
MiranaRR
Treant ProtectorTraVins
Game 2prediction missed19:38
Myth Avenue Gaming 51%SPAWN Team 49%
The model gave 51% on Myth Avenue Gaming — the game was taken by SPAWN Team in 40:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Linaxsilearn
SniperMamangDaya
Spirit BreakerMeracle
Night StalkerJikroy
Beastmasterzeal
MarciRed
SilencerHishge
RubickTraVins
UndyingRR
Tuskdalul
Model check result
Model favoriteSPAWN Team · 54%
Series resultSPAWN Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2