PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:1series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
1w Teamloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere Junior
Lionsignature
Riddys · 31 game
Lichsignature
Riddys · 28 games
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 27 games
Phoenixsignature
Riddys · 25 games
Tinysignature
Niku · 24 games
Dragon Knightsignature
gotthejuice · 22 games
Timbersawoften banned
Niku · 22 games
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 21 game
1w Team
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 25 games
Batrideroften banned
swedenstrong · 23 games
Invokersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 22 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Munkushi~ · 17 games
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 16 games
Magnusoften banned
Cloud · 16 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Munkushi~ · 15 games
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
520 picks · 703 bans
Clockwerk
482 picks · 559 bans
Muerta
477 picks · 404 bans
Batrider
476 picks · 602 bans
Tiny
465 picks · 562 bans
Gyrocopter
437 picks · 795 bans
Magnus
432 picks · 959 bans
Lion
394 picks · 230 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 61%
Hero pool strength56% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total57% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:35
Natus Vincere Junior 56%1w Team 44%
The model gave 56% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by 1w Team in 41:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealergotthejuice
Phantom AssassinMunkushi~
TinyNiku
PhoenixCloud
Tidehunterpma
SlardarChira JUNIOR
RikiZayac
Clockwerkswedenstrong
PugnaRiddys
Elder TitanFishman
Game 2prediction correct39:24
Natus Vincere Junior 56%1w Team 44%
The model gave 56% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 39:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealergotthejuice
Anti-MageMunkushi~
Monkey KingNiku
DawnbreakerCloud
Sand Kingpma
PangolierChira JUNIOR
PhoenixZayac
Clockwerkswedenstrong
LichRiddys
WarlockFishman
Game 3prediction correct43:35
Natus Vincere Junior 55%1w Team 45%
The model gave 55% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 1:16:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursagotthejuice
Dragon KnightMunkushi~
Monkey KingNiku
Queen of PainChira JUNIOR
Beastmasterpma
DoomCloud
ClockwerkZayac
Batriderswedenstrong
Crystal MaidenRiddys
LichFishman
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 57%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3