The International 2025. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:1series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:1
4Piratesloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere Junior
Tinyoften banned
Niku · 28 games
Phoenix
Riddys · 26 games
Timbersawsignature
pma · 26 games
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 23 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
gotthejuice · 21 game
Templar Assassinsignature
gotthejuice · 21 game
Lichsignature
Riddys · 20 games
Lifestealersignature
gotthejuice · 20 games
4Pirates
Tinyoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 25 games
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 20 games
Clockwerk
ariel · 18 games
Shadow Shaman
PERDAN4IK · 18 games
Dawnbreakersignature
Otaker · 15 games
Pangolieroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 15 games
Timbersaw
мистер мораль · 15 games
Bristlebackoften banned
мистер мораль · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
479 picks · 455 bans
Tiny
459 picks · 534 bans
Ringmaster
436 picks · 214 bans
Terrorblade
341 picks · 623 bans
Storm Spirit
303 picks · 430 bans
Ancient Apparition
291 picks · 631 bans
Tusk
285 picks · 205 bans
Windranger
274 picks · 78 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 74%
Hero pool strength53% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:17
Natus Vincere Junior 63%4Pirates 37%
The model gave 63% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 38:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladegotthejuice
SniperNattyNarwhal
Void SpiritNiku
UrsaOtaker
Dark Seerpma
Primal Beastмистер мораль
RikiZayac
UndyingPERDAN4IK
RingmasterRiddys
Dark Willowariel
Game 2prediction missed14:41
Natus Vincere Junior 61%4Pirates 39%
The model gave 61% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 33:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladegotthejuice
DawnbreakerOtaker
Ember SpiritNiku
KunkkaNattyNarwhal
Pangolierpma
Tidehunterмистер мораль
PugnaRiddys
Nature's Prophetariel
Dark WillowZayac
Shadow ShamanPERDAN4IK
Game 3prediction correct32:19
Natus Vincere Junior 62%4Pirates 38%
The model gave 62% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 40:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassingotthejuice
Abaddonмистер мораль
TimbersawNiku
Drow RangerOtaker
Underlordpma
Ember SpiritNattyNarwhal
Shadow ShamanZayac
Nature's Prophetariel
RingmasterRiddys
TuskPERDAN4IK
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 74%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3