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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 1:0
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 1:0
9Pandasloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 31 game
42%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Riddys · 23 games
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 20 games
35%
Lion
Lion
Riddys · 20 games
45%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
gotthejuice · 17 games
29%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
gotthejuice · 15 games
60%
Pugna
Pugna
Riddys · 15 games
47%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 14 games
29%

9Pandas

Mars
Marsoften banned
Alberkaaa · 14 games
43%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Solo · 11 games
45%
Sven
Svensignature
RAMZES666 · 10 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
RAMZES666 · 9 games
67%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
Antares · 9 games
78%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
RAMZES666 · 8 games
38%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
DarkLord^ · 8 games
38%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
DarkLord^ · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
409 picks · 658 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
388 picks · 619 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
386 picks · 358 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
384 picks · 311 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
368 picks · 799 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
366 picks · 421 bans
55%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
355 picks · 356 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
338 picks · 564 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 59%
Hero pool strength55% 9Pandas
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% 9Pandas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:13
Natus Vincere Junior 32%9Pandas 68%
The model gave 68% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 44:35.
Model check result
Model favorite9Pandas · 68%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1