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CCT Series 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Apple City Gangloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Lich
Lichsignature
Riddys · 30 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 28 games
57%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Riddys · 26 games
65%
Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 25 games
64%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 24 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Niku · 24 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
gotthejuice · 21 game
86%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
gotthejuice · 19 games
58%

Apple City Gang

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 4 games
100%
Leshrac
Leshrac
dualrazee · 3 games
100%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Norma · 3 games
67%
Mirana
Mirana
flacko · 3 games
100%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
dualrazee · 3 games
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
yowaai · 3 games
67%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
dualrazee · 2 games
100%
Io
Iooften banned
flacko · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
503 picks · 726 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
491 picks · 797 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
480 picks · 480 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
440 picks · 540 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
434 picks · 372 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
425 picks · 1012 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
398 picks · 924 bans
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
387 picks · 763 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 65%
Hero pool strength53% Apple City Gang
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:18
Natus Vincere Junior 71%Apple City Gang 29%
The model gave 71% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 33:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealergotthejuice
48% · 135 games47% · 206 games
Beastmasteryowaai
Beastmaster
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakerpma
50% · 178 games52% · 164 games
Puckdualrazee
Puck
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNiku
51% · 229 games47% · 319 games
PangolierNorma
Pangolier
Earthshaker
EarthshakerZayac
54% · 137 games57% · 38 games
BaneAstral
Bane
Mirana
MiranaRiddys
46% · 148 games52% · 100 games
Marciflacko
Marci
Game 2prediction correct27:15
Natus Vincere Junior 72%Apple City Gang 28%
The model gave 72% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 30:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealergotthejuice
51% · 160 games47% · 85 games
Phantom Assassinyowaai
Phantom Assassin
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNiku
51% · 238 games51% · 317 games
Pangolierdualrazee
Pangolier
Venomancer
VenomancerZayac
48% · 44 games53% · 27 games
AbaddonNorma
Abaddon
Night Stalker
Night Stalkerpma
57% · 88 games41% · 55 games
Warlockflacko
Warlock
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenRiddys
49% · 251 game51% · 297 games
BatriderAstral
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 85%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2