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European Pro League Season 18 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:1
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:1
ASAKURAloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 32 games
44%
Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 28 games
64%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Riddys · 23 games
48%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
gotthejuice · 22 games
77%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 21 game
38%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
gotthejuice · 19 games
32%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 19 games
53%
Pugna
Pugna
Riddys · 18 games
50%

ASAKURA

Pugna
Pugnasignature
Hduo · 18 games
72%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 18 games
72%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
laise · 17 games
59%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
laise · 17 games
59%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Hduo · 16 games
81%
Techies
Techiessignature
Lil · 15 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
laise · 14 games
64%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Kami · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
468 picks · 207 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
421 picks · 584 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
395 picks · 745 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
386 picks · 155 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
385 picks · 536 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
357 picks · 682 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
338 picks · 298 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
332 picks · 549 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 43%
Hero pool strength57% ASAKURA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:18
Natus Vincere Junior 73%ASAKURA 27%
The model gave 73% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 38:54.
Game 2prediction missed26:40
Natus Vincere Junior 73%ASAKURA 27%
The model gave 73% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by ASAKURA in 49:54.
Game 3prediction correct31:14
Natus Vincere Junior 73%ASAKURA 27%
The model gave 73% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 32:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 73%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3