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DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 1:2
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 1:2
AVULUSwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Lich
Lich
Riddys · 28 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
pma · 28 games
61%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 28 games
61%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Niku · 27 games
63%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Riddys · 26 games
65%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
gotthejuice · 24 games
83%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
gotthejuice · 21 game
76%
Lion
Lionsignature
Daze · 21 game
67%

AVULUS

Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 37 games
62%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
SoNNeikO · 36 games
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 35 games
49%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ekki · 31 game
45%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stormstormer · 29 games
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Smiling Knight · 25 games
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
SoNNeikO · 25 games
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Stormstormer · 24 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
552 picks · 787 bans
49%
Muerta
Muerta
449 picks · 328 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
439 picks · 711 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
413 picks · 404 bans
53%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
410 picks · 735 bans
53%
Magnus
Magnus
399 picks · 1062 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
398 picks · 899 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
383 picks · 530 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 43%
Hero pool strength56% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total66% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:6
Natus Vincere Junior 61%AVULUS 39%
The model gave 61% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 33:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightgotthejuice
48% · 249 games54% · 145 games
UrsaSmiling Knight
Ursa
Dark Seer
Dark Seerpma
48% · 183 games54% · 136 games
TidehunterXibbe
Tidehunter
Tiny
TinyNiku
47% · 295 games53% · 148 games
EarthshakerMo13ei
Earthshaker
Ringmaster
RingmasterRiddys
48% · 23 games55% · 144 games
WarlockSoNNeikO
Warlock
Night Stalker
Night StalkerZayac
43% · 81 game50% · 258 games
HoodwinkdEsire
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction missed13:27
Natus Vincere Junior 61%AVULUS 39%
The model gave 61% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by AVULUS in 44:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNiku
45% · 386 games40% · 144 games
MedusaSmiling Knight
Medusa
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptergotthejuice
53% · 362 games46% · 409 games
BeastmasterXibbe
Beastmaster
Sand King
Sand Kingpma
62% · 193 games49% · 492 games
TinyMo13ei
Tiny
Jakiro
JakiroRiddys
48% · 240 games52% · 173 games
ChenSoNNeikO
Chen
Tusk
TuskZayac
50% · 278 games52% · 241 game
WindrangerdEsire
Windranger
Game 3prediction missed6:26
Natus Vincere Junior 61%AVULUS 39%
The model gave 61% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by AVULUS in 33:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlinggotthejuice
46% · 151 game48% · 149 games
MedusaSmiling Knight
Medusa
Tiny
TinyNiku
45% · 235 games52% · 126 games
SlardarMo13ei
Slardar
Pangolier
Pangolierpma
46% · 300 games47% · 295 games
Primal BeastXibbe
Primal Beast
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenRiddys
55% · 146 games58% · 156 games
EarthshakerdEsire
Earthshaker
Riki
RikiZayac
55% · 54 games52% · 160 games
WarlockSoNNeikO
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 66%
Series resultAVULUS 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3