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CCT Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dragon Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lion
Riddys · 24 games
54%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 19 games
63%
Rubick
Rubick
Daze · 18 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Niku · 17 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 16 games
44%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Riddys · 14 games
43%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
pma · 13 games
46%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
pma · 13 games
62%

Dragon Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
dualrazee · 26 games
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 19 games
58%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
lil pleb · 19 games
26%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Mary_y · 18 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
paw · 16 games
63%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
lil pleb · 14 games
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
lil pleb · 13 games
38%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
dualrazee · 12 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
470 picks · 646 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
405 picks · 452 bans
52%
Luna
Luna
347 picks · 430 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
347 picks · 508 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
316 picks · 170 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
316 picks · 633 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
306 picks · 382 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
284 picks · 298 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 53%
Hero pool strength54% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total80% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:12
Natus Vincere Junior 67%Dragon Esports 33%
The model gave 67% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 36:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptergotthejuice
46% · 264 games53% · 250 games
Puckdualrazee
Puck
Sand King
Sand KingNiku
56% · 175 games53% · 187 games
Shadow FiendLowskill
Shadow Fiend
Mars
Marspma
47% · 248 games51% · 97 games
DawnbreakerInfernal
Dawnbreaker
Phoenix
PhoenixRiddys
42% · 264 games47% · 300 games
TuskMary_y
Tusk
Lion
LionDaze
55% · 261 game50% · 378 games
Shadow Demonxsvampire
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct31:10
Natus Vincere Junior 67%Dragon Esports 33%
The model gave 67% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 28:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptergotthejuice
48% · 332 games48% · 213 games
Dragon KnightLowskill
Dragon Knight
Viper
ViperNiku
51% · 80 games50% · 81 game
Monkey Kingdualrazee
Monkey King
Magnus
Magnuspma
55% · 180 games52% · 85 games
TerrorbladeInfernal
Terrorblade
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanDaze
43% · 50 games53% · 122 games
PhoenixMary_y
Phoenix
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiRiddys
45% · 53 games51% · 194 games
Rubickxsvampire
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 80%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2