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European Pro League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MarsBet Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 31 game
42%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Riddys · 22 games
45%
Lion
Lion
Riddys · 22 games
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 21 game
38%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
gotthejuice · 19 games
74%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
gotthejuice · 17 games
29%
Pugna
Pugna
Riddys · 17 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 16 games
44%

MarsBet Team

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Mr. Luck · 22 games
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
LeBronDota · 17 games
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Bignum · 15 games
47%
Luna
Lunasignature
Lukas · 15 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Mr. Luck · 15 games
47%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
LeBronDota · 13 games
31%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
LeBronDota · 12 games
50%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 11 games
36%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
452 picks · 199 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
445 picks · 672 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
436 picks · 840 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
421 picks · 587 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
411 picks · 180 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
387 picks · 626 bans
52%
Techies
Techies
386 picks · 297 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
384 picks · 676 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 47%
Hero pool strength52% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total67% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:11
Natus Vincere Junior 64%MarsBet Team 36%
The model gave 64% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 24:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pudge
Pudgegotthejuice
53% · 43 games42% · 50 games
LifestealerRetsu
Lifestealer
Huskar
HuskarNiku
62% · 24 games52% · 35 games
ZeusW1sh-
Zeus
Dazzle
Dazzlepma
55% · 35 games50% · 64 games
RazorStoneBank
Razor
Batrider
BatriderDaze
53% · 209 games44% · 112 games
TinyBignum
Tiny
Lich
LichRiddys
46% · 19 games44% · 69 games
Dark WillowLeBronDota
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct37:31
Natus Vincere Junior 60%MarsBet Team 40%
The model gave 60% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 47:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga Sirengotthejuice
54% · 115 games49% · 236 games
LunaRetsu
Luna
Timbersaw
Timbersawpma
43% · 230 games49% · 362 games
PangolierW1sh-
Pangolier
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNiku
48% · 250 games57% · 38 games
Night StalkerStoneBank
Night Stalker
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeRiddys
52% · 198 games52% · 185 games
GyrocopterBignum
Gyrocopter
Lion
LionDaze
46% · 209 games52% · 181 game
ClockwerkLeBronDota
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 67%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2