The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MoneyMakerswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere Junior
Rubick
Daze · 12 games
Techiesoften banned
Daze · 12 games
Mirana
Riddys · 11 games
Batrideroften banned
Daze · 10 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ri4man · 10 games
Magnussignature
pma · 10 games
Tiny
Ri4man · 8 games
Beastmasteroften banned
pma · 7 games
MoneyMakers
Beastmasteroften banned
Bb3px · 12 games
Disruptor
Bignum · 12 games
Clockwerk
CeMaTheSlayeR · 10 games
Techiesoften banned
Bignum · 10 games
Rubicksignature
Bignum · 8 games
Enchantressoften banned
Bignum · 7 games
Pugnaoften banned
Bignum · 7 games
Slarkoften banned
Lukas · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
505 picks · 540 bans
Rubick
451 picks · 225 bans
Batrider
408 picks · 700 bans
Ember Spirit
364 picks · 627 bans
Morphling
340 picks · 710 bans
Spirit Breaker
338 picks · 346 bans
Timbersaw
330 picks · 787 bans
Undying
323 picks · 519 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 53%
Hero pool strength50% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total51% MoneyMakers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:25
Natus Vincere Junior 48%MoneyMakers 52%
The model gave 52% on MoneyMakers — the game was taken by MoneyMakers in 43:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusagotthejuice
GyrocopterLukas
Ember Spirittoshiyb
NecrophosEgor
Underlordpma
AxeBb3px
LionDaze
MarciBignum
DisruptorRiddys
Shadow DemonCeMaTheSlayeR
Game 2prediction correct19:31
Natus Vincere Junior 49%MoneyMakers 51%
The model gave 51% on MoneyMakers — the game was taken by MoneyMakers in 33:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassingotthejuice
Phantom AssassinLukas
Timbersawpma
Ember SpiritEgor
Invokertoshiyb
BeastmasterBb3px
Earth SpiritDaze
RubickBignum
Crystal MaidenRiddys
Treant ProtectorCeMaTheSlayeR
Model check result
Model favoriteMoneyMakers · 51%
Series resultMoneyMakers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2