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CCT Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lion
Riddys · 27 games
59%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 21 game
62%
Rubick
Rubick
Daze · 19 games
53%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 19 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 17 games
47%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
pma · 14 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Niku · 14 games
43%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Riddys · 14 games
43%

Nemiga Gaming

Snapfire
Snapfire
Shishak · 17 games
59%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
jesv · 16 games
56%
Rubick
Rubick
jesv · 16 games
31%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
aik · 13 games
46%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Shishak · 13 games
38%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
nicky`cool · 13 games
31%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
aik · 12 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
nicky`cool · 12 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
488 picks · 668 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
420 picks · 468 bans
53%
Luna
Luna
359 picks · 457 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
358 picks · 536 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
333 picks · 177 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
322 picks · 413 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
320 picks · 656 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
303 picks · 312 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 24%
Hero pool strength57% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total82% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:6
Natus Vincere Junior 70%Nemiga Gaming 30%
The model gave 70% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 21:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey Kinggotthejuice
53% · 129 games49% · 467 games
Pangolierряф^^
Pangolier
Mars
Marspma
52% · 213 games47% · 40 games
DazzleMiyaoo
Dazzle
Invoker
InvokerNiku
52% · 143 games50% · 315 games
LionShishak
Lion
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterDaze
49% · 221 game48% · 138 games
Chenantoha
Chen
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonRiddys
50% · 254 games
Game 2prediction correct37:19
Natus Vincere Junior 71%Nemiga Gaming 29%
The model gave 71% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 32:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistgotthejuice
55% · 121 game51% · 267 games
Ember Spiritряф^^
Ember Spirit
Dark Seer
Dark Seerpma
51% · 62 games53% · 58 games
DawnbreakerMiyaoo
Dawnbreaker
Tiny
TinyNiku
54% · 209 games46% · 298 games
LionShishak
Lion
Rubick
RubickDaze
50% · 180 games51% · 89 games
Baneantoha
Bane
Phoenix
PhoenixRiddys
42% · 140 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 82%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2