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ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 29 games
62%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Riddys · 22 games
64%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
gotthejuice · 20 games
85%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 20 games
80%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Niku · 20 games
75%
Lich
Lich
Riddys · 19 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 19 games
42%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
pma · 18 games
50%

OG

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Kaori · 24 games
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 23 games
39%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Ari · 21 game
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
bzm · 16 games
75%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Nine · 16 games
44%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 16 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Wisper · 15 games
60%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Wisper · 15 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
482 picks · 401 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
449 picks · 560 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
412 picks · 516 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
407 picks · 217 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
402 picks · 664 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
394 picks · 443 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
368 picks · 591 bans
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
356 picks · 912 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 42%
Hero pool strength54% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total51% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:9
Natus Vincere Junior 49%OG 51%
The model gave 51% on OG — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 34:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassingotthejuice
47% · 85 games51% · 90 games
Bloodseeker23savage
Bloodseeker
Pangolier
Pangolierpma
44% · 307 games52% · 199 games
Earth SpiritNine
Earth Spirit
Tiny
TinyNiku
51% · 182 games64% · 219 games
ChenxNova
Chen
Batrider
BatriderZayac
47% · 205 games49% · 171 game
DawnbreakerChodΣX
Dawnbreaker
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenRiddys
43% · 124 games51% · 224 games
GrimstrokeAri
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction correct37:14
Natus Vincere Junior 51%OG 49%
The model gave 51% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 28:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlinggotthejuice
48% · 329 games46% · 244 games
Storm SpiritNine
Storm Spirit
Monkey King
Monkey KingNiku
53% · 171 game49% · 195 games
BrewmasterChodΣX
Brewmaster
Tidehunter
Tidehunterpma
54% · 56 games52% · 43 games
Drow Ranger23savage
Drow Ranger
Batrider
BatriderZayac
50% · 341 game53% · 366 games
Shadow DemonAri
Shadow Demon
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenRiddys
52% · 307 games46% · 356 games
EnchantressxNova
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 51%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2