?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Passion UAloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 29 games
62%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
gotthejuice · 21 game
86%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 21 game
76%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Niku · 19 games
84%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Riddys · 18 games
78%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Niku · 17 games
59%
Lich
Lich
Riddys · 16 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 16 games
44%

Passion UA

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 36 games
56%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
flacko · 28 games
43%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 27 games
56%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
yowaai · 22 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
niche · 22 games
59%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Batyuk · 22 games
59%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Batyuk · 19 games
74%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
yowaai · 19 games
32%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
411 picks · 537 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
408 picks · 338 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
365 picks · 384 bans
46%
Lion
Lion
353 picks · 179 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
351 picks · 434 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
348 picks · 581 bans
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
333 picks · 809 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
327 picks · 505 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)72% vs 55%
Hero pool strength59% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total76% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:14
Natus Vincere Junior 66%Passion UA 34%
The model gave 66% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 34:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassingotthejuice
50% · 217 games51% · 151 game
WeaverCrystallize
Weaver
Lycan
Lycanpma
55% · 54 games46% · 81 game
DawnbreakerBatyuk
Dawnbreaker
Monkey King
Monkey KingNiku
52% · 212 games52% · 278 games
Tinyniche
Tiny
Undying
UndyingRiddys
47% · 49 games53% · 235 games
Clockwerkkreker
Clockwerk
Batrider
BatriderZayac
46% · 450 games48% · 237 games
LionFernans
Lion
Game 2prediction correct27:29
Natus Vincere Junior 64%Passion UA 36%
The model gave 64% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 41:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealergotthejuice
55% · 186 games49% · 372 games
Tinyniche
Tiny
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNiku
51% · 246 games50% · 113 games
UrsaCrystallize
Ursa
Doom
Doompma
51% · 290 games40% · 184 games
RazorBatyuk
Razor
Clockwerk
ClockwerkZayac
55% · 397 games45% · 251 game
Dark WillowFernans
Dark Willow
Lich
LichRiddys
57% · 91 game50% · 290 games
Phoenixkreker
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 76%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2