MESA Invitational 2024 · BO1
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 1:0series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Talon Esportsloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere Junior
Lionsignature
Riddys · 35 games
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 26 games
Rubick
Daze · 23 games
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 22 games
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 20 games
Tinysignature
Niku · 19 games
Gyrocoptersignature
gotthejuice · 18 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
gotthejuice · 18 games
Talon Esports
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Akashi · 17 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Kuku · 16 games
Enchantressoften banned
Kuku · 16 games
Phoenix
Ponyo · 13 games
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 13 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 12 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Ws · 11 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Ws · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
485 picks · 669 bans
Clockwerk
423 picks · 496 bans
Pangolier
374 picks · 538 bans
Dark Willow
358 picks · 184 bans
Luna
330 picks · 437 bans
Batrider
328 picks · 349 bans
Enchantress
315 picks · 596 bans
Dragon Knight
310 picks · 557 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 52%
Hero pool strength57% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:18
Natus Vincere Junior 52%Talon Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 41:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealergotthejuice
WeaverNatsumi
Dark Seerpma
Dragon KnightMikoto
MagnusNiku
Primal BeastWs
Bounty HunterZayac
MuertaJhocam
LichRiddys
PhoenixKuku
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 51%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 1