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European Pro League Season 21 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lion
Riddys · 25 games
56%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 19 games
63%
Rubick
Rubick
Daze · 18 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Niku · 17 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 16 games
44%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Riddys · 14 games
43%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
pma · 13 games
46%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
pma · 13 games
62%

Zero Tenacity

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 7 games
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 5 games
60%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
MikSa` · 5 games
60%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Thiolicor · 4 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
MikSa` · 4 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 4 games
75%
Lion
Lion
Thiolicor · 4 games
50%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
DaaD- · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
479 picks · 658 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
417 picks · 461 bans
53%
Luna
Luna
353 picks · 446 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
352 picks · 523 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
325 picks · 173 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
319 picks · 394 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
319 picks · 647 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
295 picks · 307 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 56%
Hero pool strength50% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:13
Natus Vincere Junior 59%Zero Tenacity 41%
The model gave 59% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 31:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightgotthejuice
47% · 334 games53% · 183 games
Shadow FiendDaaD-
Shadow Fiend
Timbersaw
TimbersawNiku
52% · 225 games55% · 187 games
Monkey KingStojkov
Monkey King
Mars
Marspma
52% · 215 games49% · 193 games
TerrorbladeMikSa`
Terrorblade
Phoenix
PhoenixRiddys
45% · 234 games47% · 276 games
Dark WillowjAMES
Dark Willow
Lion
LionDaze
52% · 200 games48% · 369 games
ClockwerkLeBronDota
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct36:26
Natus Vincere Junior 60%Zero Tenacity 40%
The model gave 60% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 43:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptergotthejuice
48% · 328 games51% · 217 games
Templar AssassinStojkov
Templar Assassin
Doom
Doompma
54% · 245 games49% · 397 games
Dragon KnightDaaD-
Dragon Knight
Pangolier
PangolierNiku
48% · 433 games48% · 295 games
MarsMikSa`
Mars
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiRiddys
50% · 55 games48% · 262 games
Dark WillowjAMES
Dark Willow
Rubick
RubickDaze
51% · 339 games54% · 229 games
GrimstrokeLeBronDota
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 68%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2