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CCT Series 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 30 games
63%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Riddys · 22 games
64%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Niku · 22 games
73%
Lich
Lich
Riddys · 21 game
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 21 game
48%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
gotthejuice · 20 games
85%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 20 games
80%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 19 games
63%

Zero Tenacity

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 27 games
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 25 games
40%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 23 games
39%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Pablo · 22 games
68%
Lich
Lich
LeBronDota · 20 games
45%
Lion
Lion
Pablo · 20 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Nefrit · 19 games
53%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Pablo · 18 games
61%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
491 picks · 423 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
455 picks · 542 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
451 picks · 561 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
447 picks · 561 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
430 picks · 234 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
424 picks · 787 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
401 picks · 438 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
388 picks · 820 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 59%
Hero pool strength57% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total70% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:4
Natus Vincere Junior 60%Zero Tenacity 40%
The model gave 60% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 17:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassingotthejuice
50% · 180 games58% · 51 game
LycanNefrit
Lycan
Magnus
MagnusNiku
53% · 178 games55% · 65 games
Phantom AssassinRetsu
Phantom Assassin
Tidehunter
Tidehunterpma
51% · 69 games42% · 209 games
PangolierStojkov
Pangolier
Riki
RikiZayac
56% · 5 games48% · 185 games
LionPablo
Lion
Lich
LichRiddys
45% · 132 games50% · 54 games
GrimstrokeLeBronDota
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction correct38:37
Natus Vincere Junior 60%Zero Tenacity 40%
The model gave 60% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 42:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassingotthejuice
46% · 79 games49% · 71 game
BloodseekerRetsu
Bloodseeker
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNiku
50% · 196 games50% · 210 games
InvokerStojkov
Invoker
Pangolier
Pangolierpma
45% · 476 games52% · 288 games
Primal BeastNefrit
Primal Beast
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinZayac
58% · 131 game54% · 356 games
ClockwerkPablo
Clockwerk
Pugna
PugnaRiddys
55% · 181 game41% · 138 games
LichLeBronDota
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 70%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2