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The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 0:2
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 0:2
9Pandaswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Nefrit · 14 games
64%
Lion
Lion
Zayac · 14 games
43%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Zayac · 14 games
71%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Malady · 12 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Nefrit · 12 games
58%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Nefrit · 11 games
45%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Zayac · 11 games
64%
Techies
Techies
Zayac · 11 games
27%

9Pandas

Mars
Marsoften banned
Alberkaaa · 14 games
43%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DarkLord^ · 11 games
45%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Solo · 11 games
36%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Solo · 8 games
63%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Solo · 8 games
88%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Alberkaaa · 8 games
38%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Solo · 7 games
43%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
DarkLord^ · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
447 picks · 678 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
425 picks · 195 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
397 picks · 553 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
392 picks · 418 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
352 picks · 596 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
351 picks · 168 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
337 picks · 856 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
336 picks · 643 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 41%
Hero pool strength52% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total69% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:28
Natus Vincere 61%9Pandas 39%
The model gave 61% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 36:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaYuragi
48% · 59 games44% · 32 games
Chaos KnightDarkLord^
Chaos Knight
Dark Seer
Dark SeerNefrit
53% · 128 games52% · 92 games
Storm Spiritkiyotaka
Storm Spirit
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritSancity
46% · 74 games50% · 81 game
Centaur WarrunnerAlberkaaa
Centaur Warrunner
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinZayac
50% · 26 games55% · 56 games
Keeper of the Lightsayuw
Keeper of the Light
Silencer
SilencerMalady
40% · 63 games56% · 89 games
ClockwerkSolo
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed29:41
Natus Vincere 62%9Pandas 38%
The model gave 62% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 55:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightYuragi
55% · 37 games48% · 122 games
WeaverDarkLord^
Weaver
Enigma
EnigmaNefrit
60% · 128 games44% · 48 games
Void Spiritkiyotaka
Void Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierSancity
51% · 240 games52% · 44 games
BroodmotherAlberkaaa
Broodmother
Marci
MarciZayac
38% · 37 games52% · 274 games
Rubicksayuw
Rubick
Phoenix
PhoenixMalady
47% · 138 games46% · 92 games
UndyingSolo
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 69%
Series result9Pandas 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2