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The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:1
series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BETBOOM TEAMloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Puck
Pucksignature
No[o]ne · 13 games
69%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Solo · 12 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
No[o]ne · 12 games
42%
Tiny
Tiny
swedenstrong · 11 games
45%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
laise · 9 games
78%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
laise · 8 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Solo · 8 games
63%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
V-Tune · 8 games
63%

BETBOOM TEAM

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
CeMaTheSlayeR · 7 games
43%
Disruptor
Disruptor
CeMaTheSlayeR · 7 games
43%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Bignum · 7 games
43%
Snapfire
Snapfire
CeMaTheSlayeR · 7 games
57%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Dinozavrik · 6 games
33%
Puck
Pucksignature
Ainkrad · 6 games
67%
Viper
Viperoften banned
Cloud · 6 games
50%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Dinozavrik · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
736 picks · 567 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
511 picks · 1033 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
485 picks · 632 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
448 picks · 792 bans
52%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
375 picks · 415 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
337 picks · 162 bans
49%
Zeus
Zeus
328 picks · 384 bans
46%
Razor
Razor
310 picks · 590 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 71%
Hero pool strength53% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total81% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:11
Natus Vincere 19%BETBOOM TEAM 81%
The model gave 81% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 36:31.
Game 2prediction missed55:22
Natus Vincere 19%BETBOOM TEAM 81%
The model gave 81% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 47:12.
Game 3prediction missed25:6
Natus Vincere 19%BETBOOM TEAM 81%
The model gave 81% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 24:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 81%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3