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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
cybercatsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Rubick
Rubick
xsvampire · 18 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
mellojul · 16 games
50%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Malady · 9 games
33%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Malady · 8 games
63%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Malady · 8 games
63%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Shigetsu · 8 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Malady · 7 games
43%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Malik · 7 games
86%

cybercats

Techies
Techiesoften banned
jesv · 16 games
31%
Rubick
Rubick
jesv · 15 games
40%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
forcemajor · 11 games
45%
Disruptor
Disruptor
forcemajor · 11 games
55%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Alberkaaa · 11 games
45%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 10 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
forcemajor · 9 games
56%
Doom
Doomoften banned
zenica · 9 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
697 picks · 486 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
574 picks · 619 bans
55%
Doom
Doom
564 picks · 1099 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
556 picks · 505 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
534 picks · 1225 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
468 picks · 1042 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
462 picks · 675 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
457 picks · 916 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 48%
Hero pool strength52% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:18
Natus Vincere 60%cybercats 40%
The model gave 60% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 39:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaShigetsu
50% · 22 games50% · 233 games
MorphlingDarkLord^
Morphling
Magnus
Magnusmellojul
48% · 157 games49% · 330 games
Ember Spirityoung G
Ember Spirit
Lycan
LycanMalik
48% · 108 games56% · 100 games
VisageDkFogas
Visage
Rubick
Rubickxsvampire
49% · 483 games54% · 117 games
Shadow Demonforcemajor
Shadow Demon
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerMalady
48% · 147 games49% · 137 games
PugnaDukalis
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct20:7
Natus Vincere 63%cybercats 37%
The model gave 63% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 31:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenShigetsu
52% · 81 game50% · 260 games
MorphlingDarkLord^
Morphling
Pangolier
Pangoliermellojul
48% · 379 games52% · 117 games
LycanDkFogas
Lycan
Magnus
MagnusMalik
49% · 193 games52% · 244 games
Puckyoung G
Puck
Rubick
Rubickxsvampire
48% · 572 games54% · 296 games
Techiesforcemajor
Techies
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionMalady
46% · 50 games48% · 358 games
UndyingDukalis
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 71%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2