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Esports World Cup 2026 по Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:1
series probability
98%2%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Flame Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Warlock
Warlock
Riddys · 28 games
54%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Daze · 24 games
63%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
pma · 21 game
76%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Riddys · 20 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 18 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Niku · 18 games
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Riddys · 17 games
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Zayac · 17 games
47%

Flame Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
emptiness · 2 games
100%
Techies
Techies
Jeezy · 2 games
100%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Stoic · 2 games
100%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Stoic · 1 game
100%
Doom
Doomoften banned
emptiness · 1 game
100%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
legacy · 1 game
100%
Huskar
Huskaroften banned
legacy · 1 game
100%
Necrophos
Necrophosoften banned
legacy · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
576 picks · 354 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
483 picks · 576 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
465 picks · 246 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
439 picks · 379 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
390 picks · 544 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
333 picks · 890 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
324 picks · 824 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
315 picks · 458 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 67%
Hero pool strength55% Flame Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total98% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed0:0
Natus Vincere 85%Flame Esports 15%
The model gave 85% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Flame Esports in 19:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNiku
47% · 316 games50% · 188 games
Doomemptiness
Doom
Ursa
Ursagotthejuice
53% · 211 games50% · 258 games
Windrangerlegacy
Windranger
Largo
Largopma
52% · 136 games51% · 170 games
RubickJeezy
Rubick
Warlock
WarlockRiddys
48% · 309 games49% · 593 games
TuskStoic
Tusk
Dark Willow
Dark WillowDaze
50% · 237 games
Game 2prediction correct36:9
Natus Vincere 84%Flame Esports 16%
The model gave 84% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 33:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendgotthejuice
50% · 208 games44% · 310 games
Windrangerlegacy
Windranger
Pangolier
PangolierNiku
43% · 317 games51% · 428 games
Slardaremptiness
Slardar
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerpma
51% · 244 games46% · 227 games
ClockwerkStoic
Clockwerk
Hoodwink
HoodwinkDaze
47% · 374 games55% · 265 games
BaneJeezy
Bane
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorRiddys
64% · 87 games
Game 3prediction correct49:26
Natus Vincere 84%Flame Esports 16%
The model gave 84% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 41:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Necrophos
Necrophosgotthejuice
48% · 21 game56% · 87 games
Huskarlegacy
Huskar
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetNiku
58% · 94 games52% · 250 games
Centaur Warrunneremptiness
Centaur Warrunner
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakerpma
36% · 100 games45% · 151 game
RubickJeezy
Rubick
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionRiddys
51% · 46 games65% · 68 games
Treant ProtectorStoic
Treant Protector
Tusk
TuskDaze
43% · 295 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 98%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3