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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 1:2
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HellRaiserswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Silencer
Silencersignature
Solo · 7 games
100%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
GeneRaL · 5 games
80%
Lion
Lion
ALOHADANCE · 4 games
25%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
No[o]ne · 4 games
50%
Bane
Bane
ALOHADANCE · 3 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
No[o]ne · 3 games
33%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
ALOHADANCE · 3 games
100%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
V-Tune · 3 games
100%

HellRaisers

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
377 picks · 534 bans
47%
Bane
Bane
373 picks · 267 bans
60%
Snapfire
Snapfire
335 picks · 207 bans
45%
Weaver
Weaver
319 picks · 731 bans
55%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
252 picks · 340 bans
50%
Io
Io
242 picks · 614 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
239 picks · 155 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
239 picks · 309 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 71%
Hero pool strength57% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total75% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed54:26
Natus Vincere 25%HellRaisers 75%
The model gave 75% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 59:12.
Game 2prediction correct11:19
Natus Vincere 25%HellRaisers 75%
The model gave 75% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 33:29.
Game 3prediction correct12:30
Natus Vincere 25%HellRaisers 75%
The model gave 75% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 30:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 75%
Series resultHellRaisers 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3