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PGL Wallachia 2024 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:1
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Infinity Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Zayac · 21 game
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
pma · 15 games
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 15 games
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Nefrit · 14 games
64%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Yuragi · 14 games
57%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
Nefrit · 14 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Sancity · 13 games
69%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Zayac · 12 games
33%

Infinity Esports

Disruptor
Disruptor
Panda · 9 games
44%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
Kiri · 8 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Gardick · 7 games
71%
Techies
Techies
Hyko · 7 games
43%
Marci
Marcisignature
Yor · 6 games
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
PiPi · 6 games
33%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Costabile · 5 games
80%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
PiPi · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
340 picks · 292 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
331 picks · 436 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
325 picks · 252 bans
45%
Enchantress
Enchantress
316 picks · 537 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
292 picks · 276 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
291 picks · 469 bans
46%
Sand King
Sand King
291 picks · 800 bans
56%
Windranger
Windranger
290 picks · 409 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:45
Natus Vincere 55%Infinity Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 1:00:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYuragi
51% · 153 games50% · 332 games
GyrocopterCostabile
Gyrocopter
Monkey King
Monkey Kingbzm
50% · 124 games50% · 235 games
Storm SpiritPiPi
Storm Spirit
Batrider
BatriderPuppey
46% · 306 games49% · 504 games
PangolierILICH-
Pangolier
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerBOOM
52% · 332 games53% · 157 games
DisruptorPanda
Disruptor
Rubick
RubickZayac
48% · 313 games
Game 2prediction correct20:7
Natus Vincere 57%Infinity Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 25:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBOOM
60% · 74 games43% · 90 games
TerrorbladeCostabile
Terrorblade
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerYuragi
64% · 7 games50% · 79 games
InvokerPiPi
Invoker
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritbzm
38% · 39 games54% · 77 games
UnderlordILICH-
Underlord
Naga Siren
Naga SirenPuppey
48% · 67 games58% · 78 games
ChenPanda
Chen
Enchantress
EnchantressZayac
46% · 137 games
Game 3prediction correct25:1
Natus Vincere 57%Infinity Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 22:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendYuragi
41% · 45 games47% · 124 games
SvenCostabile
Sven
Underlord
UnderlordBOOM
46% · 58 games51% · 143 games
KunkkaILICH-
Kunkka
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritbzm
44% · 99 games56% · 103 games
InvokerPiPi
Invoker
Naga Siren
Naga SirenPuppey
50% · 108 games61% · 57 games
DisruptorPanda
Disruptor
Dark Willow
Dark WillowZayac
51% · 117 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 61%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3