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Clavision Snow Ruyi Invitational · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LGD Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Nefrit · 17 games
65%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Malady · 12 games
50%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Nefrit · 11 games
36%
Zeus
Zeusoften banned
Sancity · 11 games
45%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Zayac · 10 games
70%
Sven
Sven
Yuragi · 10 games
40%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Zayac · 9 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Sancity · 8 games
63%

LGD Gaming

Mars
Marssignature
niu · 20 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
niu · 20 games
30%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Pyw · 17 games
71%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
niu · 16 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Setsu · 14 games
57%
Tusk
Tusk
Pyw · 14 games
43%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
niu · 13 games
62%
Lion
Lion
Pyw · 12 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
381 picks · 808 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
367 picks · 373 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
354 picks · 262 bans
49%
Weaver
Weaver
351 picks · 733 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
319 picks · 470 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
311 picks · 510 bans
46%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
309 picks · 371 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
308 picks · 632 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 29%
Hero pool strength51% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:10
Natus Vincere 46%LGD Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 23:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYuragi
49% · 132 games53% · 181 game
Lifestealershiro
Lifestealer
Tiny
TinySancity
51% · 381 game47% · 205 games
Ember SpiritEcho
Ember Spirit
Underlord
Underlordpma
44% · 81 game55% · 356 games
Centaur Warrunnerniu
Centaur Warrunner
Rubick
RubickZayac
49% · 361 game50% · 325 games
HoodwinkPyw
Hoodwink
Sven
SvenMalady
49% · 245 games51% · 133 games
Jakiroy`
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed13:1
Natus Vincere 46%LGD Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 13:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendYuragi
59% · 51 game51% · 15 games
Bristlebackshiro
Bristleback
Beastmaster
Beastmasterpma
54% · 125 games40% · 83 games
TimbersawEcho
Timbersaw
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSancity
48% · 183 games46% · 223 games
Pangolierniu
Pangolier
Jakiro
JakiroMalady
52% · 73 games59% · 52 games
Cheny`
Chen
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerZayac
50% · 86 games49% · 145 games
ClockwerkPyw
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 58%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2