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Pinnacle: 25 Year Anniversary Show · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MoneyMakersloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Rubick
Rubicksignature
xsvampire · 12 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
mellojul · 10 games
70%
Sven
Svensignature
Shigetsu · 9 games
67%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Malik · 8 games
88%
Lion
Lionsignature
xsvampire · 8 games
75%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Malady · 8 games
75%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
mellojul · 7 games
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Malik · 6 games
67%

MoneyMakers

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Bb3px · 14 games
43%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Egor · 10 games
30%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Lukas · 9 games
67%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Bignum · 9 games
56%
Techies
Techies
Bignum · 9 games
33%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
CeMaTheSlayeR · 9 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Egor · 8 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Bignum · 8 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
259 picks · 332 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
250 picks · 114 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
218 picks · 220 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
214 picks · 479 bans
61%
Phoenix
Phoenix
213 picks · 291 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
200 picks · 381 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
194 picks · 434 bans
58%
Muerta
Muerta
187 picks · 279 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 43%
Hero pool strength59% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total75% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:19
Natus Vincere 66%MoneyMakers 34%
The model gave 66% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 37:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightShigetsu
53% · 79 games40% · 84 games
MorphlingLukas
Morphling
Puck
Puckmellojul
51% · 141 game50% · 32 games
RazorEgor
Razor
Kunkka
KunkkaNefrit
56% · 108 games52% · 163 games
TuskBignum
Tusk
Bane
BaneZayac
43% · 25 games51% · 177 games
Treant ProtectorCeMaTheSlayeR
Treant Protector
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeMalady
53% · 103 games
Game 2prediction correct39:16
Natus Vincere 66%MoneyMakers 34%
The model gave 66% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 41:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidShigetsu
49% · 134 games51% · 108 games
MorphlingLukas
Morphling
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerNefrit
49% · 101 game54% · 106 games
PuckEgor
Puck
Zeus
Zeusmellojul
46% · 68 games48% · 342 games
RubickCeMaTheSlayeR
Rubick
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorMalady
54% · 316 games48% · 90 games
GrimstrokeBignum
Grimstroke
Bane
BaneZayac
50% · 27 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 75%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2