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PGL Wallachia Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Mosquito Clanloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 20 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Shad · 16 games
56%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Sancity · 14 games
57%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Sancity · 12 games
58%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Kaori · 11 games
27%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
QBFY · 11 games
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
BOOM · 10 games
30%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Kaori · 10 games
60%

Mosquito Clan

Leshrac
Leshrac
PiPi · 3 games
0%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Vitaly · 2 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 2 games
0%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
payk · 2 games
0%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
payk · 2 games
0%
Muerta
Muerta
Yadomi · 2 games
0%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Matthew · 1 game
0%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Matthew · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
517 picks · 731 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
483 picks · 473 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
483 picks · 781 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
448 picks · 368 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
428 picks · 523 bans
50%
Magnus
Magnus
425 picks · 1040 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
412 picks · 930 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
393 picks · 537 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 33%
Hero pool strength57% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:16
Natus Vincere 67%Mosquito Clan 33%
The model gave 67% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 42:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenShad
50% · 155 games50% · 61 game
Nature's Prophetpayk
Nature's Prophet
Tidehunter
TidehunterBOOM
48% · 77 games50% · 109 games
TimbersawPiPi
Timbersaw
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSancity
50% · 204 games56% · 141 game
Dark SeerVitaly
Dark Seer
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterQBFY
46% · 68 games46% · 91 game
LeshracMatthew
Leshrac
Jakiro
JakiroKaori
50% · 152 games51% · 254 games
ClockwerkYadomi
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct29:32
Natus Vincere 69%Mosquito Clan 31%
The model gave 69% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 56:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterShad
52% · 214 games46% · 175 games
Marcipayk
Marci
Pangolier
PangolierSancity
47% · 304 games56% · 122 games
EarthshakerPiPi
Earthshaker
Primal Beast
Primal BeastBOOM
49% · 170 games44% · 63 games
AbaddonVitaly
Abaddon
Venomancer
VenomancerQBFY
59% · 42 games54% · 252 games
WeaverYadomi
Weaver
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenKaori
49% · 147 games45% · 265 games
MuertaMatthew
Muerta
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 80%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2