BLAST Slam VIII. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Kezoften banned
Niku · 21 game
Axesignature
pma · 16 games
Rubick
Daze · 16 games
Hoodwink
Daze · 15 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Daze · 15 games
Underlordsignature
pma · 14 games
Phoenixsignature
Riddys · 12 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
pma · 10 games
MOUZ
Clockwerksignature
yamich · 20 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 20 games
Tusk
yamich · 16 games
Batrideroften banned
BOOM · 15 games
Pangolieroften banned
BOOM · 15 games
Jakiro
Seleri · 13 games
Phoenix
aik · 13 games
Razor
Crystallis · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
499 picks · 331 bans
Bane
347 picks · 471 bans
Ember Spirit
344 picks · 514 bans
Clockwerk
336 picks · 484 bans
Shadow Fiend
313 picks · 648 bans
Tiny
282 picks · 307 bans
Undying
267 picks · 344 bans
Windranger
266 picks · 191 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 29%
Hero pool strength59% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head6 – 6
Model total89% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:7
Natus Vincere 74%MOUZ 26%
The model gave 74% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 37:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razorgotthejuice
LifestealerDarkLord^
Dark Seerpma
UnderlordBOOM
HuskarNiku
Ember SpiritNyx
Dark WillowDaze
DazzleMoOz
Winter WyvernRiddys
Bounty Hunterxsvampire
Game 2prediction correct32:21
Natus Vincere 77%MOUZ 23%
The model gave 77% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 39:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealergotthejuice
Shadow FiendDarkLord^
Earth SpiritNiku
DawnbreakerBOOM
Axepma
SlardarNyx
MiranaRiddys
UndyingMoOz
HoodwinkDaze
Bounty Hunterxsvampire
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 89%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2