DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Warlock
Riddys · 31 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 22 games
Marsoften banned
pma · 21 game
Grimstroke
Riddys · 20 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Niku · 20 games
Jakiro
Riddys · 19 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Zayac · 19 games
Disruptor
Riddys · 18 games
Nigma Galaxy
Hoodwink
OmaR · 37 games
Dazzle
GH · 28 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
GH · 25 games
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 24 games
Bristlebackoften banned
No!ob · 24 games
Muertaoften banned
rincyq · 24 games
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 23 games
Puckoften banned
No!ob · 22 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
506 picks · 301 bans
Phoenix
477 picks · 574 bans
Tiny
437 picks · 351 bans
Jakiro
409 picks · 314 bans
Rubick
359 picks · 196 bans
Tusk
357 picks · 313 bans
Puck
341 picks · 842 bans
Beastmaster
335 picks · 841 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 58%
Hero pool strength52% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total53% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:17
Natus Vincere 49%Nigma Galaxy 51%
The model gave 51% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 39:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursagotthejuice
PuckNo!ob
Night StalkerNiku
Kezrincyq
Axepma
ViperDavai
SilencerRiddys
IoGH
ClockwerkDaze
RubickOmaR
Game 2prediction missed33:15
Natus Vincere 50%Nigma Galaxy 50%
The model gave 50% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 31:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Necrophosgotthejuice
BristlebackDavai
Axepma
Tinyrincyq
KezNiku
ViperNo!ob
PhoenixRiddys
Winter WyvernGH
LionDaze
HoodwinkOmaR
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 53%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2