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PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
One Moveloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Zayac · 19 games
63%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Zayac · 17 games
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
BOOM · 14 games
43%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Yuragi · 14 games
50%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Zayac · 13 games
38%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
Nefrit · 13 games
77%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 12 games
58%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Sancity · 12 games
58%

One Move

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 23 games
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Difference · 22 games
64%
Marci
Marcisignature
not me · 20 games
70%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
WoE · 19 games
37%
Doom
Doomsignature
SSS · 18 games
61%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 17 games
53%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
SSS · 15 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
not me · 15 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
426 picks · 346 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
409 picks · 540 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
358 picks · 450 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
357 picks · 189 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
356 picks · 376 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
350 picks · 582 bans
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
337 picks · 817 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
337 picks · 536 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 58%
Hero pool strength53% One Move
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:6
Natus Vincere 62%One Move 38%
The model gave 62% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 24:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanBOOM
53% · 31 game39% · 226 games
MorphlingWoE
Morphling
Monkey King
Monkey KingSancity
58% · 204 games45% · 352 games
PangolierDifference
Pangolier
Tiny
TinyShad
53% · 388 games43% · 111 games
KunkkaSSS
Kunkka
Lion
LionQBFY
52% · 310 games54% · 81 game
Ogre MagiJANTER
Ogre Magi
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionKaori
62% · 28 games46% · 191 game
Muertanot me
Muerta
Game 2prediction correct38:21
Natus Vincere 59%One Move 41%
The model gave 59% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 36:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightShad
48% · 453 games47% · 267 games
MorphlingWoE
Morphling
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSancity
46% · 254 games54% · 343 games
TinyDifference
Tiny
Brewmaster
BrewmasterBOOM
50% · 229 games54% · 118 games
BristlebackSSS
Bristleback
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanQBFY
52% · 66 games50% · 266 games
EnchantressJANTER
Enchantress
Pugna
PugnaKaori
49% · 213 games52% · 221 game
Shadow Demonnot me
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 69%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2