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Riyadh Masters 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
One Moveloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Magnus
Magnussignature
BOOM · 19 games
68%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Ari · 18 games
72%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Sancity · 18 games
72%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Shad · 17 games
53%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 16 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 13 games
54%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 11 games
82%
Muerta
Muertasignature
QBFY · 10 games
60%

One Move

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
SSS · 26 games
58%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Difference · 24 games
29%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 21 game
43%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
WoE · 20 games
35%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 20 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 19 games
21%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Bb3px · 18 games
44%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Gilgir · 16 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
521 picks · 603 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
471 picks · 237 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
458 picks · 433 bans
49%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
371 picks · 775 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
351 picks · 513 bans
51%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
343 picks · 791 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
333 picks · 297 bans
48%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
320 picks · 353 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 47%
Hero pool strength63% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total76% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:4
Natus Vincere 65%One Move 35%
The model gave 65% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 23:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackBOOM
51% · 170 games56% · 118 games
UrsaEyesight
Ursa
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerYuragi
44% · 31 game44% · 96 games
SlardarCorrupted
Slardar
Monkey King
Monkey KingCopy
52% · 151 game59% · 67 games
Void SpiritDifference
Void Spirit
Batrider
BatriderAri
46% · 185 games49% · 245 games
Dark WillowGilgir
Dark Willow
Warlock
WarlockKaori
47% · 102 games51% · 113 games
Ancient ApparitionBb3px
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction correct30:10
Natus Vincere 63%One Move 37%
The model gave 63% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 22:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBOOM
48% · 296 games59% · 293 games
BristlebackCorrupted
Bristleback
Abaddon
AbaddonYuragi
50% · 101 game55% · 72 games
LeshracDifference
Leshrac
Timbersaw
TimbersawCopy
46% · 199 games53% · 106 games
UrsaEyesight
Ursa
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanKaori
48% · 150 games49% · 156 games
Nature's ProphetBb3px
Nature's Prophet
Marci
MarciAri
43% · 119 games49% · 238 games
Dark WillowGilgir
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 76%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2