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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Rune Eatersloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
GeneRaL · 11 games
55%
Puck
Puckoften banned
No[o]ne · 9 games
56%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Solo · 8 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
swedenstrong · 8 games
38%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
ALOHADANCE · 8 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
GeneRaL · 7 games
57%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Solo · 7 games
71%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
ALOHADANCE · 7 games
43%

Rune Eaters

Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 6 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
TA2000 · 6 games
67%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
ArrOw · 5 games
40%
Mirana
Mirana
ArrOw · 5 games
60%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
hAze · 5 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cloud · 4 games
25%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Cloud · 4 games
75%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
550 picks · 461 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
440 picks · 687 bans
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
424 picks · 541 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
397 picks · 277 bans
58%
Puck
Puck
356 picks · 820 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
351 picks · 576 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
334 picks · 638 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
334 picks · 528 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 46%
Hero pool strength51% Rune Eaters
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:27
Natus Vincere 58%Rune Eaters 42%
The model gave 58% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 33:00.
Game 2prediction correct31:17
Natus Vincere 58%Rune Eaters 42%
The model gave 58% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 33:58.
Game 3prediction correct23:23
Natus Vincere 58%Rune Eaters 42%
The model gave 58% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 42:12.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 58%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3