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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:1
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:1
SIBE Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Lion
Lionsignature
xsvampire · 14 games
64%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
mellojul · 9 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
mellojul · 8 games
63%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Malady · 8 games
25%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Malik · 7 games
57%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Shigetsu · 7 games
71%
Puck
Pucksignature
mellojul · 7 games
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Malik · 6 games
50%

SIBE Team

Rubick
Rubick
sunset · 14 games
29%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
klassnokruto · 13 games
62%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
emptiness · 12 games
83%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
klassnokruto · 12 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
erase · 10 games
70%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
nesfeer · 9 games
67%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Rein · 9 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
ряф^^ · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
303 picks · 441 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
276 picks · 412 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
261 picks · 445 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
232 picks · 213 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
230 picks · 214 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
228 picks · 651 bans
53%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
227 picks · 127 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
223 picks · 312 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 48%
Hero pool strength52% SIBE Team
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total75% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:9
Natus Vincere 63%SIBE Team 37%
The model gave 63% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 31:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerShigetsu
38% · 96 games57% · 33 games
Meeponesfeer
Meepo
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritmellojul
47% · 227 games55% · 392 games
Pangolierряф^^
Pangolier
Mars
MarsNefrit
45% · 82 games56% · 20 games
Nyx Assassinsunset
Nyx Assassin
Enchantress
EnchantressMalady
44% · 173 games54% · 205 games
PugnaRein
Pugna
Lion
LionZayac
49% · 72 games
Game 2prediction missed9:29
Natus Vincere 63%SIBE Team 37%
The model gave 63% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 41:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightmellojul
57% · 110 games52% · 136 games
Faceless Voidnesfeer
Faceless Void
Mars
MarsNefrit
45% · 110 games46% · 135 games
Puckряф^^
Puck
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinShigetsu
53% · 155 games54% · 215 games
EnchantressRein
Enchantress
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritMalady
52% · 107 games45% · 95 games
Hoodwinksunset
Hoodwink
Lion
LionZayac
49% · 99 games
Game 3prediction correct40:16
Natus Vincere 65%SIBE Team 35%
The model gave 65% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 37:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidShigetsu
52% · 101 game44% · 103 games
Lunanesfeer
Luna
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNefrit
56% · 186 games48% · 191 game
Puckряф^^
Puck
Tiny
Tinymellojul
54% · 186 games46% · 141 game
Hoodwinksunset
Hoodwink
Techies
TechiesZayac
51% · 180 games48% · 309 games
EnchantressRein
Enchantress
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritMalady
52% · 91 game
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 75%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3