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BLAST Slam IV · BO1
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 1:0
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team Aureusloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 23 games
61%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 21 game
57%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Riddys · 20 games
50%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
Riddys · 17 games
53%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Kaori · 17 games
59%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
gotthejuice · 16 games
75%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Niku · 15 games
60%
Sven
Svensignature
gotthejuice · 15 games
67%

Team Aureus

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Tims · 18 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Natsumi · 16 games
63%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Tims · 15 games
67%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Force · 12 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Tims · 12 games
67%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Force · 11 games
73%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Yopaj · 11 games
64%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Force · 9 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
625 picks · 309 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
540 picks · 548 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
399 picks · 1118 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
380 picks · 201 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
359 picks · 614 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
353 picks · 392 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
350 picks · 160 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
346 picks · 269 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 68%
Hero pool strength52% Team Aureus
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:5
Natus Vincere 64%Team Aureus 36%
The model gave 64% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 28:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNiku
52% · 284 games47% · 234 games
TerrorbladeNatsumi
Terrorblade
Abaddon
Abaddongotthejuice
59% · 209 games39% · 78 games
SlardarYopaj
Slardar
Venomancer
Venomancerpma
50% · 28 games47% · 133 games
UrsaForce
Ursa
Chen
ChenRiddys
56% · 107 games38% · 173 games
HoodwinkTims
Hoodwink
Bane
BaneZayac
57% · 100 games51% · 110 games
Elder TitanSkem
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 72%
Series resultNatus Vincere 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1