?
arrow_backBack to match
Riyadh Masters 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 0:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Falconswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 25 games
68%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Sancity · 21 game
62%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Kaori · 18 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Copy · 17 games
41%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Shad · 15 games
40%
Magnus
Magnussignature
BOOM · 13 games
69%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Ari · 13 games
69%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
BOOM · 11 games
45%

Team Falcons

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 47 games
51%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 37 games
46%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 34 games
59%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
Cr1t- · 29 games
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Skiter · 25 games
44%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Skiter · 25 games
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Sneyking · 23 games
52%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Cr1t- · 23 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
491 picks · 527 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
444 picks · 460 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
358 picks · 360 bans
48%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
352 picks · 199 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
348 picks · 515 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
348 picks · 725 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
310 picks · 462 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
308 picks · 197 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 41%
Hero pool strength52% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total60% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:26
Natus Vincere 46%Team Falcons 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 39:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
Abaddongotthejuice
48% · 120 games52% · 197 games
Nature's ProphetSkiter
Nature's Prophet
Timbersaw
Timbersawpma
55% · 226 games37% · 67 games
RazorATF
Razor
Monkey King
Monkey KingNiku
59% · 286 games51% · 120 games
Primal BeastMalr1ne
Primal Beast
Dark Willow
Dark WillowZayac
50% · 298 games46% · 346 games
TuskSneyking
Tusk
Disruptor
DisruptorRiddys
47% · 61 game51% · 261 game
MuertaCr1t-
Muerta
Game 2prediction correct9:35
Natus Vincere 44%Team Falcons 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 35:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendgotthejuice
46% · 179 games58% · 186 games
TimbersawMalr1ne
Timbersaw
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNiku
52% · 276 games45% · 406 games
PangolierATF
Pangolier
Dark Seer
Dark Seerpma
54% · 193 games48% · 274 games
Dragon KnightSkiter
Dragon Knight
Undying
UndyingRiddys
46% · 75 games54% · 129 games
PugnaSneyking
Pugna
Tusk
TuskZayac
51% · 439 games45% · 167 games
MarciCr1t-
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 60%
Series resultTeam Falcons 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2