Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 1:2series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Spiritwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Clockwerksignature
swedenstrong · 15 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
laise · 9 games
Timbersawoften banned
laise · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
No[o]ne · 8 games
Marcioften banned
swedenstrong · 8 games
Snapfire
swedenstrong · 8 games
Tiny
swedenstrong · 8 games
Crystal Maiden
Solo · 7 games
Team Spirit
Tinysignature
Mira · 26 games
Rubicksignature
Mira · 18 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 15 games
Clockwerk
Miposhka · 14 games
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 14 games
Pangoliersignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 13 games
Razorsignature
Collapse · 13 games
Marcioften banned
Mira · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
342 picks · 333 bans
Tusk
331 picks · 328 bans
Mirana
223 picks · 236 bans
Crystal Maiden
215 picks · 144 bans
Pangolier
198 picks · 533 bans
Leshrac
197 picks · 415 bans
Rubick
196 picks · 157 bans
Snapfire
188 picks · 109 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 45%
Hero pool strength59% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total81% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:13
Natus Vincere 33%Team Spirit 67%
The model gave 67% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 38:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingV-Tune
Monkey KingYatoro
Primal Beastnicky`cool
DoomCollapse
Visagelaise
Dragon KnightLarl
SilencerMalady
HoodwinkMira
Rikiswedenstrong
MiranaMiposhka
Game 2prediction correct9:19
Natus Vincere 28%Team Spirit 72%
The model gave 72% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 32:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordV-Tune
UrsaYatoro
Broodmotherlaise
LeshracLarl
Batridernicky`cool
SnapfireCollapse
Tinyswedenstrong
ClockwerkMira
Treant ProtectorMalady
Crystal MaidenMiposhka
Game 3prediction correct10:28
Natus Vincere 33%Team Spirit 67%
The model gave 67% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 33:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaV-Tune
Chaos KnightYatoro
Batridernicky`cool
Primal BeastCollapse
Visagelaise
PangolierLarl
Tinyswedenstrong
IoMira
Treant ProtectorMalady
Crystal MaidenMiposhka
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 81%
Series resultTeam Spirit 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3