BLAST Slam VI · BO1
result vs predictionseries probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Disruptor
Riddys · 27 games
Warlock
Riddys · 26 games
Banesignature
Zayac · 22 games
Snapfiresignature
Zayac · 22 games
Jakirooften banned
Riddys · 20 games
Marsoften banned
pma · 20 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Niku · 18 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 17 games
Team Yandex
Tusksignature
Malady · 30 games
Jakirosignature
Malady · 28 games
Pangoliersignature
Noticed · 21 game
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 21 game
Slardaroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 21 game
Hoodwinksignature
Saksa · 19 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Chira JUNIOR · 19 games
Snapfire
Malady · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
602 picks · 936 bans
Tusk
536 picks · 430 bans
Centaur Warrunner
492 picks · 645 bans
Dragon Knight
482 picks · 655 bans
Shadow Demon
439 picks · 951 bans
Ember Spirit
395 picks · 650 bans
Mars
391 picks · 529 bans
Warlock
378 picks · 233 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 63%
Hero pool strength54% Team Yandex
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total56% Team Yandex
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:34
Natus Vincere 47%Team Yandex 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 35:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windrangergotthejuice
UrsaWatson
Storm SpiritNiku
UnderlordNoticed
Bristlebackpma
Void SpiritChira JUNIOR
Shadow DemonZayac
JakiroMalady
DisruptorRiddys
TuskSaksa
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Yandex · 56%
Series resultTeam Yandex 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1