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The International 2022: Last Chance · BO2
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 1:1
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Vici Gamingloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Solo · 15 games
60%
Puck
Pucksignature
No[o]ne · 13 games
69%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
No[o]ne · 12 games
42%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Solo · 11 games
36%
Tiny
Tiny
swedenstrong · 11 games
45%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
laise · 10 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
laise · 10 games
80%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
No[o]ne · 9 games
33%

Vici Gaming

Marci
Marcisignature
Frisk · 8 games
63%
Puck
Pucksignature
Xm · 8 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Yds · 8 games
63%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Frisk · 6 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Yds · 6 games
33%
Viper
Vipersignature
niu · 6 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yang · 5 games
40%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
poyoyo · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
548 picks · 424 bans
52%
Marci
Marci
458 picks · 660 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
332 picks · 754 bans
55%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
330 picks · 452 bans
44%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
299 picks · 493 bans
49%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
290 picks · 363 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
258 picks · 832 bans
53%
Dazzle
Dazzle
250 picks · 160 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 47%
Hero pool strength54% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:24
Natus Vincere 49%Vici Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 59:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracNo[o]ne
47% · 43 games52% · 66 games
Lycanniu
Lycan
Ursa
UrsaV-Tune
48% · 38 games55% · 101 game
Juggernautpoyoyo
Juggernaut
Visage
Visagelaise
50% · 76 games53% · 110 games
ViperXm
Viper
Silencer
SilencerSolo
61% · 21 game47% · 79 games
EarthshakerFrisk
Earthshaker
Tiny
Tinyswedenstrong
47% · 194 games35% · 16 games
LichYang
Lich
Game 2prediction correct8:21
Natus Vincere 47%Vici Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 21:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierNo[o]ne
43% · 197 games53% · 264 games
Templar AssassinXm
Templar Assassin
Sven
SvenV-Tune
49% · 37 games54% · 102 games
Lifestealerpoyoyo
Lifestealer
Mars
Marslaise
48% · 304 games66% · 129 games
Enigmaniu
Enigma
Snapfire
Snapfireswedenstrong
41% · 236 games60% · 168 games
UndyingYang
Undying
Silencer
SilencerSolo
36% · 41 game48% · 152 games
TuskFrisk
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 51%
Accuracy by game1 of 2