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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Virtus.proloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
GeneRaL · 12 games
58%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
ALOHADANCE · 11 games
45%
Puck
Puckoften banned
No[o]ne · 9 games
44%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
No[o]ne · 9 games
33%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
V-Tune · 9 games
33%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Solo · 8 games
50%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
ALOHADANCE · 8 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
GeneRaL · 7 games
57%

Virtus.pro

Bane
Banesignature
Xakoda · 13 games
77%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
yamich · 13 games
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
DM · 10 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 10 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
DM · 9 games
89%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Xakoda · 9 games
44%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Xakoda · 8 games
38%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Pure~ · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
504 picks · 436 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
486 picks · 690 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
453 picks · 289 bans
59%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
439 picks · 530 bans
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
383 picks · 616 bans
56%
Sand King
Sand King
377 picks · 538 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
373 picks · 608 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
351 picks · 316 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 55%
Hero pool strength59% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total78% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:4
Natus Vincere 33%Virtus.pro 67%
The model gave 67% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 25:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterV-Tune
48% · 148 games48% · 188 games
PuckgpK~
Puck
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakerlaise
48% · 86 games54% · 178 games
TerrorbladeRAMZES666
Terrorblade
Tiny
TinyNo[o]ne
47% · 282 games59% · 76 games
ViperDM
Viper
Enchantress
EnchantressSolo
46% · 201 game41% · 127 games
Clockwerkyamich
Clockwerk
Io
Ioswedenstrong
55% · 246 games56% · 394 games
BaneXakoda
Bane
Game 2prediction missed24:10
Natus Vincere 32%Virtus.pro 68%
The model gave 68% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 29:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaV-Tune
44% · 215 games55% · 273 games
Templar AssassinRAMZES666
Templar Assassin
Puck
PuckNo[o]ne
42% · 215 games53% · 114 games
DoomDM
Doom
Lycan
Lycanlaise
47% · 53 games53% · 161 game
Keeper of the LightgpK~
Keeper of the Light
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSolo
49% · 130 games51% · 244 games
Monkey Kingyamich
Monkey King
Tiny
Tinyswedenstrong
53% · 321 game54% · 142 games
Shadow ShamanXakoda
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 78%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2