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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 1:2
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Yellow Submarinewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Lion
Lion
Zayac · 13 games
54%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
mellojul · 11 games
55%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Nefrit · 10 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Nefrit · 9 games
67%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Shigetsu · 8 games
75%
Puck
Puckoften banned
mellojul · 8 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Zayac · 8 games
63%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Malady · 8 games
50%

Yellow Submarine

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pJonn · 19 games
58%
Mars
Marsoften banned
emptiness · 13 games
46%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Satanic · 13 games
62%
Luna
Luna
Satanic · 11 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 11 games
36%
Tusk
Tusk
aik · 11 games
45%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
rue · 10 games
30%
Rubick
Rubick
rue · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
421 picks · 688 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
401 picks · 647 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
394 picks · 362 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
393 picks · 323 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
383 picks · 465 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
381 picks · 840 bans
56%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
361 picks · 359 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
352 picks · 600 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total69% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:39
Natus Vincere 63%Yellow Submarine 37%
The model gave 63% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 44:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerYuragi
60% · 125 games46% · 105 games
Naga SirenSatanic
Naga Siren
Razor
RazorNefrit
48% · 104 games43% · 110 games
Kunkkaerase
Kunkka
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritSancity
46% · 62 games42% · 110 games
Windrangeremptiness
Windranger
Disruptor
DisruptorMalady
54% · 182 games50% · 134 games
Crystal Maidenasdekor_r
Crystal Maiden
Monkey King
Monkey KingZayac
57% · 175 games52% · 189 games
Techiesrue
Techies
Game 2prediction correct28:19
Natus Vincere 61%Yellow Submarine 39%
The model gave 61% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 30:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinSancity
50% · 216 games50% · 144 games
SvenSatanic
Sven
Morphling
MorphlingYuragi
50% · 348 games45% · 260 games
Timbersawerase
Timbersaw
Enigma
EnigmaNefrit
55% · 124 games50% · 222 games
Magnusemptiness
Magnus
Tiny
TinyZayac
50% · 257 games49% · 273 games
Batriderasdekor_r
Batrider
Pugna
PugnaMalady
51% · 327 games51% · 373 games
Techiesrue
Techies
Game 3prediction missed8:27
Natus Vincere 60%Yellow Submarine 40%
The model gave 60% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 37:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSancity
49% · 181 game49% · 230 games
MorphlingSatanic
Morphling
Razor
RazorYuragi
48% · 97 games50% · 122 games
Kunkkaerase
Kunkka
Enigma
EnigmaNefrit
59% · 93 games47% · 196 games
Centaur Warrunneremptiness
Centaur Warrunner
Techies
TechiesMalady
51% · 339 games46% · 171 game
Hoodwinkrue
Hoodwink
Lion
LionZayac
47% · 201 game54% · 192 games
Pugnaasdekor_r
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 69%
Series resultYellow Submarine 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3