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Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yellow Submarineloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Lion
Lion
Zayac · 15 games
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 12 games
58%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Zayac · 12 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Nefrit · 11 games
64%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Nefrit · 11 games
45%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Sancity · 11 games
45%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Zayac · 11 games
64%
Techies
Techies
Zayac · 11 games
27%

Yellow Submarine

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
emptiness · 31 game
61%
Techies
Techies
rue · 28 games
46%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
asdekor_r · 24 games
46%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Satanic · 21 game
52%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 21 game
48%
Luna
Luna
Satanic · 20 games
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
emptiness · 18 games
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
rue · 18 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
481 picks · 221 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
437 picks · 676 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
421 picks · 602 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
416 picks · 381 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
413 picks · 745 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
376 picks · 161 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
355 picks · 754 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
344 picks · 1023 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 52%
Hero pool strength51% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total64% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:18
Natus Vincere 60%Yellow Submarine 40%
The model gave 60% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 44:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterYuragi
56% · 170 games44% · 235 games
MorphlingSatanic
Morphling
Timbersaw
TimbersawSancity
49% · 172 games51% · 252 games
Dragon Knighterase
Dragon Knight
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
51% · 191 game49% · 40 games
Axekasane
Axe
Io
IoMalady
56% · 52 games46% · 161 game
Clockwerkasdekor_r
Clockwerk
Hoodwink
HoodwinkZayac
52% · 103 games
Game 2prediction correct34:26
Natus Vincere 56%Yellow Submarine 44%
The model gave 56% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 54:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaYuragi
42% · 41 game52% · 180 games
Ember Spiriterase
Ember Spirit
Zeus
ZeusSancity
44% · 85 games58% · 68 games
Troll WarlordSatanic
Troll Warlord
Axe
AxeNefrit
46% · 45 games56% · 205 games
Centaur Warrunnerkasane
Centaur Warrunner
Phoenix
PhoenixMalady
49% · 178 games55% · 159 games
Enchantressasdekor_r
Enchantress
Rubick
RubickZayac
43% · 263 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 64%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2